Analysis: Yemen Reacts to Assad’s Fall – Government Optimistic, Houthis Silent

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has drawn mixed reactions across Yemen, a nation whose own conflict bears striking similarities to the Syrian scenario. Both nations share key features, including their experience during the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 and the profound influence of external actors.

 

Yemen and Syria are both part of the Arab Spring. In Yemen, the uprising led to the ousting of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (1978–2012) after prolonged protests, only for him to later align with the Houthi movement. In contrast, Bashar al-Assad managed to retain power in Syria, plunging the country into a bloody and complex civil war.

 

Yemen's transitional period, marked by the 2013 National Dialogue Conference initiated under the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) framework, was once considered a potential model for Syria. However, the conspiracy against the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference, and Yemen's descent into conflict, spearheaded by the Houthi alliance with Saleh, made the implementation of such a model in Syria unfeasible.

 

The parallels between the two countries, their uprisings, regimes, and subsequent consequences are striking, though with some key distinctions. Most notably, Bashar al-Assad's regime was far more brutal compared to Yemen’s Saleh. Both nations, however, share a significant connection to a common external force: Iran, which has identified them as part of four nations under its influence, asserting control through direct intervention or by utilizing local proxies.

 

External involvement has played a powerful role in both Yemen and Syria. In Yemen, fragmentation has given rise to diverse allegiances: one faction aligns with Iran, represented by the Houthi movement, while the Yemeni government is backed by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  A similar dynamic exists in Syria, where Iran plays a central role, while armed opposition groups receive significant external support.

 

Government and Political Responses

 

The Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, led by Rashad Al-Alimi and comprising eight members, was quick to issue a statement on the fall of Assad. The council congratulated the Syrian opposition, praised Syria's return to the Arab fold, and reaffirmed Yemen’s commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity and independence. However, the statement also underscored concerns over Iranian influence, labeling Syria as under Iranian tutelage.

 

Pro-government political parties in Yemen echoed similar sentiments. The National Bloc for Political Parties, a recently formed coalition based in Aden, celebrated the developments in Syria as an opportunity for stability and a rejection of Iranian dominance. This perspective  aligns with Saudi Arabia's supportive stance toward these parties, despite the recent thaw in Saudi-Iranian relations.

 

In their statement, the parties characterized Assad's fall as an opportunity to confront the Houthi movement and bring an end to its coup in Yemen. While this aspiration is evident in their rhetoric, it remains confined to political declarations. The complexities of Yemen's conflict, coupled with the multitude of local and international actors involved, continue to hinder any tangible progress toward a breakthrough.

 

Public and Factional Responses

 

Various factions were quick to express their views on the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The Supreme Council of Popular Resistance, led by Sheikh Hamoud Al-Mekhlafi—one of the first figures to lead armed resistance against the Houthi movement and its ally, former President Saleh, in Taiz—issued a statement calling for Yemenis to reclaim their state. This was seen as a hint toward replicating the Syrian opposition’s model to confront the Houthis.

 

In Taiz, a city besieged by the Houthis and scarred by years of conflict, dozens took to the streets to celebrate Syria’s developments. Protesters raised banners declaring that Sana’a, under Houthi control, should be the next city to be liberated from what they described as Iranian influence.

 

Similar celebrations were observed in Al-Hudaydah, in areas controlled by the Yemeni government. In Al-Khokha, under the command of Presidential Leadership Council member Tariq Saleh, symbolic festivities coincided with the anniversary of the city’s liberation from the Houthis.

 

Houthis Silent

The Houthis have remained conspicuously silent regarding developments in Syria. Historically, the group has openly supported Assad, framing the Syrian conflict as a conspiracy by Türkiye and other states against the so-called  "Axis of Resistance," a coalition led by Iran, of which the Houthis are a key component.

 

Notably, the Houthis launched drone strikes toward Israel just one day after the fall of Assad’s. This could be interpreted as a calculated message that these events do not concern them and that they remain capable of exerting influence.

 

Their silence was most evident in Sana’a, where the response was limited to condemning Israeli advances near Syria’s Quneitra border the day after the fall of Assad’s regime. Historically, the Houthis had maintained ties with Assad’s regime; Damascus was the only Arab capital to accept a Houthi ambassador, who represented their interests until this arrangement ended.

 

Recent reports by Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper revealed that Houthi embassy staff in Damascus departed late last year at the request of the Syrian regime, which was reportedly under Saudi-Emirati pressure.

 

The Southern Transitional Council’s Reserved Stance

 

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed entity that participates in Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council and advocates for southern secession, has remained silent regarding the developments in Syria. This silence likely stems from the council's alignment with the UAE, which had publicly expressed support for Assad just days before his fall. Consequently, the STC appeared to adopt a cautious stance, refraining from commenting on the events in Syria.

 

Summary of the Situation

 

The developments in Syria have deepened divisions among Yemeni factions. However, they have also sparked a broader interest in drawing lessons from the Syrian experience, both at the governmental and public levels. The exception remains the Houthi movement, which appears acutely aware of how these events could impact its survival and agenda. This awareness likely explains its silence and could potentially prompt actions that influence the trajectory of the ongoing conflict. Recent international attention on the country has grown, largely due to escalating Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea regions, as well as their strikes targeting Israel.

 

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