Al-Shalfi: Houthi Escalation Is a Negotiating Tactic, Not a Move Toward War

Journalist Ahmed Al-Shalfi has affirmed that the latest Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia is more indicative of a negotiating pressure tool than genuine preparation for an all-out war. His comments come amid what he described as “confirmed” reports of ongoing talks between Houthi representatives and Saudi officials aimed at reaching a comprehensive political solution to the Yemeni crisis.

 

Speaking to Arabi21, Al-Shalfi said the “recent threats issued by the Houthi group against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are notable both in timing and intensity and were far from spontaneous. They were made across all levels of the group — from its leader to political and media officials, down to field commanders — reflecting a coordinated and deliberate decision to raise the ceiling of rhetoric toward Riyadh.”

 

He noted that this escalation became more apparent following a statement issued Saturday by the Houthi-run Ministry of Interior announcing the discovery of an alleged “intelligence cell run by the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia,” which the group claimed was operating from within Saudi territory.

 

According to Al-Shalfi, the statement clearly suggests that the level of dialogue between the Houthis and the Kingdom “may have stalled,” pushing the group from subtle messaging to direct accusations — a shift that indicates “unprecedented tension” in the ongoing communication channels between the two sides.

 

He added that Houthi-affiliated media have recently resumed publishing reports of artillery shelling targeting border areas in Saada governorate, describing these incidents as “Saudi aggression.” He pointed out that such rhetoric had largely disappeared over the past two years, and its return in this manner signals “a real crisis in the trajectory of understandings with Riyadh, as well as an attempt to revive the narrative of external threat to mobilize internal support and redirect public opinion.”

 

Al-Shalfi continued: “What is striking is that all of this coincides with confirmed reports of talks between Houthi representatives and Saudi Arabia that appear to have made no tangible progress — particularly as the Houthis insist on returning to the roadmap agreed upon by Yemeni parties and Saudi Arabia before the Gaza war. That roadmap is no longer acceptable to the United States or influential regional actors, as it granted the Houthis broad political and economic concessions.”

 

He explained: “From this perspective, the Houthi escalation — including the intelligence cell statement and the limited border-level tensions — is better understood as a negotiating pressure tactic rather than preparation for a full-scale war.” He noted that the group, by nature, is “adventurous and non-hesitant,” and may undertake field actions to demonstrate seriousness, improve its negotiating position, or secure gains.

 

However, he stressed that “today’s reality is entirely different from what it was two years ago. The Houthis are now in a phase of hesitation after suffering losses from American and Israeli strikes and the killing of several of their political and military leaders, in addition to the weakening of Iran’s regional axis following the Gaza war.”

 

Al-Shalfi concluded that the Houthi escalation “is likely to remain confined to rhetoric, accusations, and limited clashes without developing into a broader confrontation,” noting that the group “understands that any full-scale war at this moment could open a front it is not prepared to withstand.”

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